Analysis: Market Is Undervaluing the Possibility Cardano (ADA) ETF Is Delayed Until 2026

The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is impacting the SEC's review process for crypto ETFs, potentially delaying Cardano's ETF decision beyond its 2025 deadline into 2026. With the SEC operating with limited personnel, the backlog of crypto ETF applications, including Cardano's, is unlikely to clear soon. Betting markets indicate a 36% chance of a month-long shutdown, which reinforces the skepticism about timely approvals. While traders currently see a 90% probability for the ADA ETF approval by the end of 2025, the likelihood of a delay appears higher than market sentiment suggests. Any approval process is complicated further by the seasonal slowdown in the SEC's operations leading up to the year-end holidays. While there remains a chance for a favorable decision before year's end, considering the current political landscape implies that the 11% chance of no approval in 2025 could be underestimated.

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