Bitcoin Crash Off the Table as Four-Year Cycle is Dead: Arthur Hayes

Arthur Hayes suggests that Bitcoin's traditional four-year market cycle is no longer applicable, asserting that shifts in global monetary policy indicate a trend towards increasing fiat liquidity. Historically, previous Bitcoin bear markets coincided with monetary tightening in major economies. Hayes argues that the current accommodative monetary conditions will prevent Bitcoin from entering a bear market soon. He emphasizes that the four-year cycle centered on halving events is influenced more by fluctuations in fiat money supply rather than the halving events themselves. With the recent halving in April 2024, some traders fear a market peak; however, Hayes believes the ongoing bull market will continue, bolstered by a deluge of fiat liquidity. He points to U.S. and Japanese monetary policies, highlighting the expectation for interest rate cuts and growth in money supply, suggesting that such conditions will continue to support rising Bitcoin prices. In summary, he believes these factors invalidate the traditional four-year cycle and will keep Bitcoin's bullish momentum intact.

Source 🔗