Bitcoin Derivatives Might Not Fully Recover From October Crash Until Q2

Bitcoin derivatives may take until Q2 2026 to fully recover from an October crash that wiped out $19 billion in open interest, according to Max Xu, Bybit’s derivatives operations director. Currently, open interest in Bitcoin futures, options, and perpetual contracts is about $140 billion, down from $220 billion before the crash. The event led to a spike in derivatives trading volume to $748 billion. Xu maintains a constructive outlook for the medium-term, suggesting that improvements in macroeconomic conditions could facilitate a return to pre-crash levels sooner than expected. At present, Bitcoin trades around $100,800, marking a 10.5% drop over the past month. Key strike price clusters in the options market indicate varied trader expectations, with $1.1 billion in bullish contracts at $140,000 and $200,000, while another $1.1 billion cluster sits at $85,000, indicating significant pessimism. Xu notes that the upcoming month could see lighter positioning, potentially stabilizing the market compared to previous high-leverage scenarios. Nonetheless, volatility remains a possibility with events like ETF-related flows.

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