Bitcoin Derivatives Might Not Fully Recover From October Crash Until Q2

Bitcoin derivatives activity may take until the second quarter of 2026 to regain pre-crash levels following a significant drop on October 10 that erased $19 billion in open interest. Currently, Bitcoin's open interest across futures, options, and perpetual contracts stands at approximately $140 billion, down from $220 billion prior to the crash. While immediate recovery is unlikely, a favorable macroeconomic environment, such as potential interest rate cuts, could foster a gradual restoration of open interest. The day of the crash saw derivatives volumes spike to $748 billion, but it has since stabilized around $300 billion weekly. Despite a general decrease in open interest, there are notable bullish and bearish sentiments reflected in the options market, indicating a mixed outlook for the near future. Experts suggest that the upcoming expiry period may proceed with reduced volatility, benefiting from lighter positions compared to previous high-leverage phases, offering a healthier market setup as 2026 approaches.

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