Bitcoin Derivatives Might Not Fully Recover From October Crash Until Q2

The October 10 crash resulted in a significant blow to Bitcoin derivatives, causing a loss of $19 billion in open interest. Currently, Bitcoin open interest across futures, options, and perpetual contracts stands at approximately $140 billion, down from $220 billion before the crash. Despite a spike in derivatives volume to $748 billion during the crash, the average has stabilized around $300 billion since then. According to Max Xu from Bybit, full recovery could take two quarters, unless macroeconomic conditions improve sooner. He noted that positive changes, such as rate cuts and better market sentiment, might see the open interest returning to pre-crash levels by early 2026. There's also a notable presence of bullish call contracts at various strike prices in the options market, but some pessimism remains with significant positioning around lower price points. It is expected that the forthcoming month could be less volatile, with lighter positioning likely leading to a more stable market as we approach year-end expiries.

Source 🔗