Bitcoin Derivatives Might Not Fully Recover From October Crash Until Q2

Bitcoin derivatives activity is expected to take up to two quarters to recover from an October 10 crash that wiped out $19 billion in open interest. Currently, Bitcoin's open interest in futures, options, and perpetual contracts is approximately $140 billion, down from $220 billion before the crash, as stated by Max Xu, the derivatives operations director at Bybit. Derivatives volumes surged to $748 billion on the day of the crash but have stabilized around $300 billion weekly since then. The article notes that if macroeconomic conditions improve, particularly with anticipated rate cuts, there could be a gradual return to pre-crash levels by Q1 or Q2 of 2026. Key strike levels for options contracts are identified, indicating a mix of bullish and bearish sentiments among traders, which may influence volatility and overall market sentiment heading into 2026. Xu emphasizes that we may enter a calmer year-end expiry with reduced market pressure and a healthier setup for derivatives trading, despite remaining uncertainty in the crypto market.

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