Bitcoin Derivatives Might Not Fully Recover From October Crash Until Q2
The October 10 crash resulted in a $19 billion loss in Bitcoin derivatives open interest, which currently stands at approximately $140 billion. Derivatives volumes surged to $748 billion on the day of the crash but have since stabilized around $300 billion. According to Max Xu, Bybit’s derivatives operations director, recovery could take up to two quarters, with open interest possibly returning to pre-crash levels by Q1 or Q2 2026 if macro conditions improve. Presently, Bitcoin is trading around $100,800, reflecting a decline of 10.5% from the previous month. Data from Deribit shows significant bullish contracts at the $140,000 and $200,000 strike prices for December 26 expiry, yet also reveals a bearish cluster at $85,000. The current market anticipates a quieter end-of-year expiry due to reduced open interest, which may stabilize the market compared to previous high-leverage periods. Xu notes potential short-term volatility related to ETF flows or renewed market movements but expects a healthier derivatives setup entering 2026.
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