BTC Ends Weak Quarter Amid Seasonal Pressures

Bitcoin concluded a weak quarter, experiencing a 5% drop in Week 38, traditionally the third-most bearish week of the year. The cryptocurrency is currently down more than 10% from its peak. External pressures like options expiry, where over $17 billion in options expired with a max pain price of $110,000, have influenced BTC's performance. The short-term holder cost basis stands at $110,775, with a critical level at $107,252 from early September, which bitcoin must maintain to keep an upward trend. Macro economic factors reflect a growing U.S. economy with low jobless claims. Meanwhile, bitcoin treasury firms are facing significant mNAV compression, highlighting the struggle of firms like Strategy and Metaplanet amid low volatility in bitcoin. Implied volatility for BTC has fallen below 40%, affecting speculative interest and market dynamics. Overall, while equities and metals emerge positively, bitcoin's positioning remains cautious as it navigates these economic tides.

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