Can the biggest Bitcoin whales really decide when the market turns green or red?

Since the introduction of spot ETFs in 2024, Bitcoin's price fluctuations have become increasingly correlated with ETF inflows and outflows. The supply of Bitcoin on exchanges is at multi-year lows, meaning that even minor trades can significantly impact prices. Large holders, known as whales, often split their trades or use over-the-counter (OTC) desks to minimize their market influence, reducing the visibility of their actions. Recent data shows that wallets holding at least 1,000 BTC recently surpassed 1,670. BlackRock's ETF holds approximately 800,000 BTC for multiple investors, indicating that Bitcoin ownership is often distributed across many custodial accounts, further complicating the assessment of who truly controls the market. Additionally, macroeconomic factors such as dollar strength and interest rates play a critical role in Bitcoin's daily direction. The analysis highlights that while whales can influence prices, they do not dictate the market's overall trends; ETF activity and liquidity have become the primary drivers of Bitcoin's movements.

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