Here’s the real reason the 4-year cycle is dead: Arthur Hayes

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, believes the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle is no longer valid, as it is principally driven by monetary policy rather than time. In a recent blog post, Hayes highlights how traders tend to rely on historical patterns to predict market movements, but he asserts that this time is different due to evolving monetary conditions. He notes that past cycles typically ended with tightened monetary policy but emphasizes that the current cycle is influenced more by the monetary supply, particularly from the US and China. Key factors include the US Treasury's actions in the financial markets and the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cuts, which might lead to increased liquidity. Hayes predicts that while Chinese policymakers will intervene to manage economic pressures, the overall trend points towards a possible bullish sentiment for Bitcoin as monetary policy remains supportive. Despite some analysts holding onto cyclical patterns, Hayes argues that the changing dynamics will ultimately dictate future price movements, signaling the end of the four-year cycle concept.

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