HOPIUM For Bitcoin (BTC) Bulls
Bitcoin's price has largely remained rangebound above $100,000 since June, causing some analysts to predict a potential bear market amidst the traditional four-year bitcoin cycle. However, the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), currently around $54,750, offers some hope for bulls as it still sits significantly below Bitcoin's 2021 peak of approximately $70,000. Historical patterns suggest that previous bull markets typically end when the 200-week SMA approaches or challenges the prior cycle's peak price, as seen in late 2017 and early 2022. Since the SMA remains below the recent peak, analysts argue that Bitcoin may still be in a broader bull market. Despite this optimism, the low historical occurrence of such patterns in Bitcoin's relatively short tenure cautions against drawing firm conclusions. Market participants are advised to consider this context, especially in comparison to traditional stock market patterns, which have much older roots.
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