HOPIUM For Bitcoin (BTC) Bulls

Bitcoin's rally since June has stalled, with prices hovering above $100,000 yet remaining largely rangebound. Some analysts express concern over a possible bear market, referencing the traditional four-year bitcoin cycle. However, the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), currently around $54,750, suggests that the broader bull market may still be intact. Historical trends indicate that past bull markets tend to end when the 200-week SMA approaches the prior cycle’s peak price, which occurred in late 2017 and early 2022. Since the SMA is still significantly below the 2021 high of around $70,000, this pattern implies potential resilience for bitcoin despite its recent struggles. While this outlook provides some optimism for bullish investors, it's important to note that this phenomenon has only occurred twice in bitcoin's history, particularly during periods of low institutional interest, making conclusions drawn from this data somewhat limited, especially to traditional investors who base decisions on a longer history of data.

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