How Long Government Shutdown Will Be: Asia Morning Briefing

Prediction markets are anticipating a historic U.S. government shutdown, likely lasting over 40 days, which would surpass the 2019 record. According to contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi, there is a 96% probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut at the upcoming October FOMC meeting, coupled with an 85% probability of another cut in December. This uncertainty poses challenges for the Federal Reserve, which will face delays in vital economic reports such as jobs and inflation data during the shutdown. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is currently trading above $108,000, although it has decreased slightly in value, and gold has seen a significant drop after a recent surge. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index rose following an increase in exports. Overall, market sentiments and financial strategies are being shaped by the ongoing political developments in the U.S.

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