Investors should be cautious when using BTC stock-to-flow model

Analyst André Dragosch from Bitwise has advised caution regarding the Bitcoin Stock-To-Flow (S2F) model, stating that it may not be the best framework for predicting Bitcoin prices. The S2F model anticipates a peak price of $222,000 during the current market cycle but focuses primarily on Bitcoin halvings, ignoring demand-side factors. Dragosch noted that current institutional demand, especially via Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs), far exceeds the annualized supply reduction from halvings. The ongoing debate among investors and analysts centers on Bitcoin's price trajectory as the market matures, with some suggesting that the recent dip below $104,000 could be an attractive buying opportunity. Others predict significant price growth in 2026 due to an increase in the M2 money supply, which could bolster Bitcoin prices. However, notable industry figures, including Tom Lee and Mike Novogratz, have expressed skepticism regarding high price projections, indicating that significant market changes would be necessary for such levels to be reached.

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