Michael Saylor's MSTR is Barely Ahead on BTC Bet, but Threat of Imminent Danger Overblown

Michael Saylor's company, Strategy (MSTR), is currently in a precarious position as Bitcoin prices have fluctuated sharply, leaving their balance sheet at a near breakeven point. As of now, MSTR faces no immediate risk of collapse, but significant concerns arise in 18 months when holders of convertible notes may seek cash repayments instead of conversions. The company has seen its stock plummet by nearly 70% since last year, raising questions on its ability to meet obligations. Throughout 2025, MSTR utilized perpetual preferred stock for financing its Bitcoin purchases. The pressure points include a potential decline below $74,400 for its Bitcoin holdings, which wouldn't trigger an immediate margin call but could impact future capital raising efforts. Currently, they have options available such as issuing more common shares, selling a portion of their Bitcoin treasury, or paying dividends in stock. However, resorting to these methods may negatively affect investor confidence and future capital acquisitions.

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