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Predicting, resulting, zeros, and when not to trade

Professional sports bettors assess their bets based on the final betting line rather than just outcomes. The accuracy of prediction markets like Polymarket can be judged using Brier scores, which show how well odds reflect actual outcomes. Polymarket has a low Brier score of 0.0581, indicating its predictions are about 77% more accurate than a coin flip. This raises questions about efficiency and the potential for profit in prediction markets. Many people fall into outcome bias, judging decisions by results rather than the decision-making process. As prediction markets gain popularity and engage more participants, they may provide valuable insights across various topics. For instance, significant amounts were bet on predictions regarding Jerome Powell’s press conference, indicating growing interest in such markets. In broader trading, a potential plan for 24/7 trading may not be favorable, as better prices are often achieved during regular market hours when liquidity is highest. Overall, the landscape of prediction markets and trading is evolving, emphasizing the importance of decision quality over outcomes.

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Prediction Markets Indicate U.S. Government Shutdown Might End Soon

Prediction markets suggest that the lengthy U.S. government shutdown may conclude shortly, with traders assigning a 96% probability of it reopening between November 12 and 15. A recent Senate vote advanced a bipartisan funding bill, yet critical issues such as Affordable Care Act subsidies remain unresolved. Political pressures are

Prediction Markets Say U.S. Government Shutdown Days From Ending as Health Care Fight Looms

The U.S. government shutdown appears to be nearing its end, with prediction markets indicating a 96% chance of resolution by mid-November. A Senate vote advanced a funding bill intended to reopen the government, although significant issues, including Affordable Care Act subsidies, remain unresolved. Traders are predicting the shutdown could

Prediction Markets Suggest U.S. Government Shutdown is Nearing an End

Prediction markets indicate a 96% likelihood that the lengthy U.S. government shutdown will conclude between November 12 and 15. This optimism follows a Senate vote that passed a bipartisan funding bill aimed at reopening government operations. However, unresolved issues remain, particularly regarding Affordable Care Act subsidies critical for many

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