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Predicting, resulting, zeros, and when not to trade

This segment discusses the effectiveness of prediction markets, specifically Polymarket, which has demonstrated a low Brier score of 0.0581, indicating a 77% higher accuracy than random guessing. This score highlights that successful betting strategies rely on making bets better than final odds, mirroring the experience of professional sports bettors. The commentary draws on insights from Daniel Kahneman regarding outcome bias, stressing the importance of assessing decisions based on the process rather than results. The article highlights a shift in prediction markets to become more consistent sources of information, as evidenced by increased betting volumes even outside major events. Additionally, a mention of Elon Musk's investments emphasizes the recurring theme of profitability concerns in the crypto space, especially regarding company valuations without clear paths to profits. Lastly, it warns against the 24/7 trading model for equities, suggesting that liquidity should dictate trading times, similar to traditional markets.

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Prediction Markets Indicate U.S. Government Shutdown Might End Soon

Prediction markets suggest that the lengthy U.S. government shutdown may conclude shortly, with traders assigning a 96% probability of it reopening between November 12 and 15. A recent Senate vote advanced a bipartisan funding bill, yet critical issues such as Affordable Care Act subsidies remain unresolved. Political pressures are

Prediction Markets Say U.S. Government Shutdown Days From Ending as Health Care Fight Looms

The U.S. government shutdown appears to be nearing its end, with prediction markets indicating a 96% chance of resolution by mid-November. A Senate vote advanced a funding bill intended to reopen the government, although significant issues, including Affordable Care Act subsidies, remain unresolved. Traders are predicting the shutdown could

Prediction Markets Suggest U.S. Government Shutdown is Nearing an End

Prediction markets indicate a 96% likelihood that the lengthy U.S. government shutdown will conclude between November 12 and 15. This optimism follows a Senate vote that passed a bipartisan funding bill aimed at reopening government operations. However, unresolved issues remain, particularly regarding Affordable Care Act subsidies critical for many

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