Predicting, resulting, zeros, and when not to trade

The article discusses how professional sports bettors evaluate their bets based on the final betting line, not merely the outcomes. It introduces Brier scores, a method for assessing the accuracy of probabilistic predictions. Polymarket has demonstrated a remarkable Brier score of 0.0581, indicating exceptional predictive accuracy. However, this efficiency poses a question regarding market inefficiency which typically incentivizes forecasters to participate. The content also touches on psychological biases in decision-making, emphasizing that results shouldn't dictate judgment in investments or gambling. McCullough's analysis shows a thriving prediction market, perhaps wider than during the 2024 presidential election, highlighting bets placed on trivial events. Furthermore, it mentions that U.S. equities may soon trade 24/7, which the author warns could lead to poorer pricing due to diminished liquidity during off-hours. In conclusion, while prediction markets are evolving, prudent trading strategies that focus on optimal timing rather than just outcomes are vital.

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