Predicting, resulting, zeros, and when not to trade

The content discusses the challenges and nuances of predicting outcomes in trading and betting markets, emphasizing that success should not be judged purely on results but on the decision-making process. Professional sports bettors evaluate their bets based on the accuracy of the odds rather than the results, a principle supported by Daniel Kahneman's thoughts on decision-making bias. McCullough's analysis of Polymarket shows its exceptional predictive accuracy compared to random guessing, as evidenced by its low Brier score. However, it also raises questions about the efficiency of prediction markets, as some inefficiency is essential to motivate participants. The article warns against judging decisions by their outcomes, illustrating this with examples from poker and investment strategies. As prediction markets become more prevalent, the nature of betting evolves, indicating a shift toward constant information supply. The final sections touch on cryptocurrency and trading insights, cautioning against the rush to trade outside typical hours due to potential price impacts, ultimately advocating for patience in trading decisions.

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