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Predicting Trading Insights

Professional sports bettors evaluate their performance based on the odds they secured at the time of betting rather than the final outcome. This concept parallels prediction markets, where the accuracy of forecasts is assessed using Brier scores, which measure how close predicted probabilities are to actual outcomes. McCullough's analysis shows that Polymarket’s Brier score is significantly low at 0.0581, indicating a predictive accuracy much better than random chance. As prediction markets gain traction, they may provide insight into arbitrary bets, including those related to prominent economic figures. Additionally, concerns arise regarding 24/7 trading in US equities, which could lead to reduced prices during off-hours. Many traders believe that they benefit from waiting for traditional market hours for better prices. Essential advice is to evaluate decisions based on the soundness of the process rather than outcomes, a principle often overlooked in investing. As more obscure bets gain liquidity, the evolution of prediction markets suggests they could be a consistent information source beyond major events.

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