Prediction Markets Say U.S. Government Shutdown Days From Ending as Health Care Fight Looms

The U.S. government shutdown appears to be nearing its end, with prediction markets indicating a 96% chance of resolution by mid-November. A Senate vote advanced a funding bill intended to reopen the government, although significant issues, including Affordable Care Act subsidies, remain unresolved. Traders are predicting the shutdown could conclude between November 12 and 15, coinciding with the anticipated House vote on the bipartisan funding bill. The Senate passed a plan that would prevent mass federal layoffs and restore food aid, but the fate of ACA subsidies is still uncertain. Political tensions are high, with Republicans under pressure to act before the subsidies lapse, affecting millions. Both parties are wary of the potential political fallout from the shutdown as midterm elections approach, with prediction markets reflecting a split likelihood of outcomes. The situation remains fluid as Congress grapples with these critical issues and the implications for their political futures.

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