Short-Term Holders Hold 18% of the BTC Supply, Data Suggests Euphoria Isn’t Close

Short-term holders (STHs) currently possess approximately 18% of Bitcoin's circulating supply, a decline from previous peaks of 22% and 20%. Since July, STHs have accumulated about 450,000 BTC, bringing their total to around 2.6 million BTC, defined as investors who bought Bitcoin within the last 155 days. This uptick is part of a third consecutive cycle of rising STH activity since early 2024, which has often indicated a local top in Bitcoin prices. In previous cycles, STH supply as a percentage of total supply decreased from 22% to 20%, and now stands at 18%. The fluctuations in STH supply reflect changing market sentiment and diminished speculative behavior. In contrast, long-term holders have reduced their holdings by roughly 250,000 BTC over the summer. As Bitcoin approaches a historically robust period, there is speculation that STH supply may continue to rise, potentially exceeding 3 million BTC, amidst increasing overall market stability.

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