Polymarket Nobel Peace Prize Bets Spark Investigation in Norway
Investigation launched after suspicious bets on María Corina Machado’s Nobel Peace Prize victory raise fears of espionage and insider trading
Norwegian officials have launched an investigation into possible leaks surrounding bets placed on prediction platform Polymarket ahead of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize announcement. Authorities suspect that confidential information about the winner, Venezuelan activist María Corina Machado, may have been stolen and used for profit.
According to Bloomberg, the Norwegian Nobel Institute noticed a spike in bets hours before the official announcement, prompting concerns that someone “managed to steal information and made a lot of money from it,” said institute director Kristian Berg Harpviken.
Polymarket data revealed that one user, known as “dirtycup,” earned over $30,000 from $70,000 in bets predicting Machado’s win. In total, three accounts with similar betting patterns reportedly profited around $90,000 combined.
Machado, a prominent Venezuelan human rights advocate, was awarded the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for her role in promoting democracy and political freedom. In 2024, she had praised Bitcoin as “a lifeline” during Venezuela’s economic collapse, highlighting its role in helping citizens preserve their wealth.
Polymarket, founded in 2020, allows crypto users to wager on real-world events ranging from politics to pop culture. The platform recently attracted a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, ahead of its anticipated US expansion.
The platform has faced both regulatory and cultural scrutiny, including satire from South Park and oversight from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). However, after receiving a no-action letter from the CFTC, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan said the firm now has the “green light” to operate in the US — and reportedly joined the billionaire ranks following ICE’s investment.
