gm 03/11

Summary
gm, Bitcoin traded below $110,000 after ending "Uptober" with an 8.5% decline, breaking a six-year streak of October gains following President Trump's China tariff threats. Meanwhile, Latin American exchange Ripio launched wARS, an Argentine peso stablecoin designed to facilitate cross-border transactions without relying on USD conversion. On the regulatory front, Europol highlighted the "increasingly sophisticated" criminal misuse of crypto, while several crypto ETF issuers have pivoted to a procedural path allowing them to launch without active SEC approval during the ongoing government shutdown. Former FTX US president Brett Harrison called high-leverage crypto trading a "major problem," advocating for more responsible practices through his new exchange, Architect, which will offer significantly lower leverage limits.

News Headlines
📊 Coinbase Reports Record Q3 Revenue of $1.9 Billion

• Coinbase achieved record Q3 revenue of $1.9 billion driven by resurgent trading volumes and profitable services, including its Ethereum L2 Base. This momentum continued into October with transaction revenue reaching $385 million.
• Meanwhile, BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) experienced substantial outflows totaling $290.8 million on October 30 as Bitcoin prices dipped below $110,000, indicating shifting institutional sentiment with a total net outflow of $388.43 million across US spot Bitcoin ETFs.

📆 November Could Be Bitcoin's Strongest Month, Analysis Shows

• Analysis indicates November may be Bitcoin's strongest month historically, with an average gain of 42.5% since 2013, though this is skewed by a remarkable 449% spike in 2013. The median return for November is a more modest 9%.
• After "Uptober" disappointment with an 8.5% decline, experts advise caution with "Moonvember" expectations, suggesting traders use seasonal trends as context rather than definitive signals and wait for confirmation of upward momentum before making decisions.

📈 Bitcoin's Sideways Price Action Likened to "Silent IPO" Distribution Phase

• Finance manager Jordi Visser compares Bitcoin's current market behavior to a post-IPO distribution phase in a viral essay, suggesting early investors are gradually selling without crashing prices, enabled by institutional adoption and ETFs.
• Visser urges patience, forecasting prolonged sideways movement before clearer price action emerges, with sentiment likely to improve once selling pressure abates and institutional positions consolidate.

🔍 Europol Warns of Increasingly Sophisticated Criminal Crypto Use

• Europol has highlighted the increasing sophistication of criminal misuse of crypto and blockchain, straining law enforcement resources across EU member states and necessitating improved cooperation and investment in tackling these evolving crimes.
• The Global Conference on Criminal Finances and Crypto Assets underscored the need for public-private partnerships and unified blockchain training, especially as illicit cryptocurrency addresses received approximately $40.9 billion in 2024 according to Chainalysis.

🚀 Crypto ETF Issuers Bypass SEC Approval Process Due to Government Shutdown

• Several issuers are using a procedural path to launch spot crypto ETFs without active SEC approval, filing updated S-1 registration statements with "no delaying amendment" language. This approach has already resulted in four ETF listings this week.
• Major players like Fidelity and Canary Capital could launch new products as soon as November 13, though some filings like the XRP ETF have not received SEC acknowledgment, potentially hindering progress until the government returns to normal operations.

Market Metrics

Fundraising & VC
1. Aria Protocol (Public Token Sale, $600K) - Compliant RWA + IP tokenization platform
2. Slice (M&A, Undisclosed) - Browser extension and ad-revenue sharing platform

Regulatory
🏦 Fed Injects $29.4B Liquidity with Potential Bitcoin Impact

• The Federal Reserve has injected $29.4 billion into the banking system—the largest intervention since the 2020 pandemic—to address liquidity concerns and stabilize repo rates.
• This temporary liquidity boost could provide support for risk assets like Bitcoin, although experts emphasize it doesn't signal a shift toward long-term quantitative easing policies.

🔍 Trump Addresses Controversial Binance Founder Pardon

• President Trump claimed no personal knowledge of Binance founder Changpeng Zhao in a CBS interview, characterizing the pardon as a response to the Biden administration's "persecution" of crypto.
• The pardon has sparked corruption concerns among lawmakers due to its connection to a $2 billion transaction involving Trump's family's World Liberty Financial stablecoin project.

⚖️ Appeals Court to Review SBF's Retrial Request

• The Second Circuit Court of Appeals will hear Sam Bankman-Fried's appeal seeking a retrial on fraud and conspiracy charges, with his legal team arguing Judge Lewis Kaplan exhibited bias.
• Legal experts note that overturning a trial court's decision is difficult, and recent Supreme Court rulings on fraud law may adversely affect SBF's claims regarding intent.

🌐 Circle CEO Highlights Revenue Potential of New 'Arc' Platform

• Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire revealed strong growth potential for Arc, describing it as "an economic OS for the internet" with features like dollar-priced fees and sub-second finality.
• The platform, which launched its public testnet on October 28 with mainnet release expected in 2026, aims to enhance on-chain financial workflows and has reportedly attracted over 100 companies across various sectors.

📱 Australian Police Expand Crypto Crime Crackdown After Court Ruling

• South Australia Police arrested 55 more suspects in Operation Ironside following a High Court decision allowing encrypted app messages as evidence in crypto-related criminal cases.
• Authorities have seized approximately A$58 million (US$37.9 million) in cryptocurrency related to drug trafficking, firearms offenses, and money laundering activities.

Technical Analysis
Bitcoin - Bitcoin is within an approximate horizontal trend channel in the short term. This indicates that investors are uncertain and waiting for signals of further direction. A break upwards will be a positive signal, while a break downwards will be a negative signal. The currency is between support at points 107200 and resistance at points 109600. A definitive break through of one of these levels predicts the new direction. Negative volume balance indicates that volume is high on days with falling prices and low on days with rising prices, which weakens the currency. The currency is overall assessed as technically slightly negative for the short term.

Ethereum - Ethereum is in a falling trend channel in the short term. This shows that investors over time have sold at lower prices to get out of the currency, and indicates negative development for the currency. The price has broken the support at 3777 of a rectangle pattern, which signals a further fall. The currency has broken down through support at points 3830. This predicts a further decline. In case of positive reactions, there will now be resistance at points 3830. Volume tops and volume bottoms correspond badly with tops and bottoms in the price. This confirms the trend. The currency is overall assessed as technically negative for the short term.