gm 05/10

Summary
gm, Bitcoin surged to nearly $125,000, setting a new all-time high as exchange balances fell to a six-year low amid strong ETF inflows exceeding $3.2 billion for the week. In corporate adoption news, Walmart's fintech platform OnePay announced plans to integrate Bitcoin and Ethereum trading by year-end, while Coinbase applied for a National Trust Company Charter to expand its service offerings beyond custody. On the regulatory front, a landmark court ruling determined that Bored Ape NFTs do not constitute securities, establishing an important precedent for the NFT market, while VanEck took steps toward launching a staked Ethereum ETF by registering a statutory trust aimed at providing exposure to ETH staked through Lido.

News Headlines
📈 JPMorgan, Citi See Bitcoin Q4 Boom: Here Are Their Price Targets

• Major Wall Street institutions are predicting substantial Bitcoin growth by year-end: Citigroup estimates $133,000, JPMorgan projects $165,000, and Standard Chartered forecasts an optimistic $200,000 target.
• These bullish forecasts are driven by consistent ETF inflows, with expectations of an additional $7.5 billion in demand, and potential capital rotation from gold into Bitcoin, particularly as institutional interest continues to grow.

💰 Bitcoin ETFs Kickstart 'Uptober' with $3.2B in Second-Best Week on Record

• Bitcoin ETFs saw an impressive $3.24 billion inflow in the first week of October, marking the second-best week since their inception and reversing the previous week's $902 million outflow. This surge has helped push Bitcoin's price above $123,000.
• The strong performance aligns with "Uptober," historically Bitcoin's second-best month for returns (averaging 20%), with analysts citing expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts as driving investor appetite for riskier assets.

🏦 Coinbase Applies for National Trust Charter for Federal Oversight

• Coinbase has applied for a national trust charter from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), which would place the firm under federal regulatory oversight and allow expansion of its services beyond custody.
• While emphasizing it doesn't intend to become a bank, Coinbase aims to offer new financial products like payments and settlements without requiring state-by-state approvals, reflecting a broader trend of crypto companies seeking federal supervision.

⚖️ Bored Ape NFTs Are Not Securities, Court Rules in Landmark Decision

• A federal judge has dismissed a class-action lawsuit against Yuga Labs, ruling that Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) NFTs do not constitute securities. The judge cited their sales on third-party marketplaces rather than the issuing platform and the absence of a "common enterprise" connection.
• This significant ruling comes after the SEC recently closed its investigation into Yuga Labs without taking enforcement action, providing important legal clarity for the NFT market despite BAYC's floor price remaining below historical peaks.

🔄 VanEck Registers Lido (LDO) Staked Ethereum (ETH) ETF Trust in Delaware, Eyes SEC Approval

• VanEck has taken a significant first step toward launching a staked Ethereum ETF by registering a statutory trust in Delaware. The proposed ETF would give investors exposure to ether staked through Lido, which currently holds around $38 billion worth of ETH.
• This preliminary move, while not yet a formal SEC application, signals growing interest in providing institutional investors access to yield-bearing crypto assets without direct staking complexities. Lido's governance token LDO rose over 3% following the announcement.

Market Metrics

Fundraising & VC
No fundraising data today.

Regulatory
💰 IRS Provides Relief for Crypto Treasury Firms

• The IRS has issued interim guidance indicating C Corporations generating over $1 billion in revenue won't be taxed on unrealized crypto capital gains under the Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax.
• This change particularly benefits digital asset treasury companies like Strategy and Mara Holdings, which maintain significant Bitcoin holdings on their balance sheets, signaling a potentially more crypto-friendly regulatory environment.

🌐 Vietnam Shows Strong Crypto Adoption Despite Regulations

• Vietnam ranks fourth globally in cryptocurrency adoption according to Chainalysis, with the country's crypto value received surging from $1.4 trillion to over $2.3 trillion year-over-year.
• Despite recently implementing regulations prohibiting the issuance of on-chain fiat-backed assets like stablecoins, Vietnam remains a significant regional hub for crypto adoption in Southeast Asia.

💵 Stripe CEO: Stablecoins Will Force Banks to Share Yields

• Patrick Collison, CEO of Stripe, argues that yield-bearing stablecoins will force traditional banks to provide competitive interest rates on deposits, highlighting the current low average savings rates of 0.40% in the US and 0.25% in the EU.
• Collison criticized lobbying efforts to limit yield-sharing for stablecoin deposits following the GENIUS bill, suggesting the evolution of stablecoins reflects a broader shift toward digital currency adoption.

🛑 Government Shutdown Threatens Crypto Regulation Progress

• The U.S. government shutdown that began October 1 could significantly delay key crypto regulatory actions if prolonged, particularly affecting approvals for new ETFs and market structure legislation.
• Industry experts believe December remains a feasible target for passing new crypto legislation, but partisan tensions may complicate progress if the shutdown continues.

Technical Analysis
Bitcoin - Bitcoin has broken the ceiling of the falling trend in the short term, which indicates a slower initial falling rate. The currency has marginally broken up through resistance at points 123400. An established break predicts a further rise. Volume tops and volume bottoms correspond well with tops and bottoms in the price. This strengthens the currency. The RSI curve shows a rising trend, which could be an early signal of the start of a rising trend for the price as well. The currency is overall assessed as technically positive for the short term.

Ethereum - Ethereum is within an approximate horizontal trend channel in the short term. This indicates that investors are uncertain and waiting for signals of further direction. A break upwards will be a positive signal, while a break downwards will be a negative signal. The currency has support at points 4300 and resistance at points 4800. The currency is assessed as technically neutral for the short term.