gm 07/11

Summary
gm, A notable $128 million exploit on the Balancer decentralized exchange exacerbated market concerns over protocol security. Meanwhile, institutional developments gained momentum as Ripple announced a partnership with Mastercard, WebBank, and Gemini to pilot RLUSD stablecoin for credit card settlements on the XRP Ledger, potentially revolutionizing payment processing with blockchain efficiency. In regulatory advancements, Chainlink and Apex Group successfully tested an on-chain stablecoin compliance system with the Bermuda Monetary Authority, while Canadian lawmakers initiated legislation for Canadian-dollar-backed stablecoins, signaling increasing mainstream integration of blockchain technology in traditional financial systems.

News Headlines
💰 Robinhood Reports 339% Surge in Crypto Trading Revenue in Q3

• Robinhood's crypto trading revenue skyrocketed 339% to $268 million in Q3, with $80 billion in trading volume, significantly contributing to the company's overall strong performance with adjusted earnings per share of $0.61, exceeding analysts' expectations.
• The company's prediction markets have doubled in volume each quarter, reaching 2.3 billion contracts by Q3, while adding 2.5 million new accounts and $20 billion in net deposits, showcasing robust growth across crypto-related business lines.

📊 JPMorgan Sets Bitcoin Fair Value at $170K in Gold-Based Model

• JPMorgan analysts predict Bitcoin could reach a fair value of $170,000 within 6-12 months, using a comparison model to gold that suggests Bitcoin is currently undervalued at $102,000.
• The analysis indicates Bitcoin should match about two-thirds of gold's investment base ($6.2 trillion), requiring a significant increase in market capitalization. As gold volatility rises, Bitcoin may emerge as a preferred hedge against equity risk for institutional investors.

🐳 4.65 Million Previously Dormant Bitcoin Reenters Circulation in 2025

• Over 4.65 million BTC that was previously dormant has reentered circulation in 2025, including 470,000 BTC held for over five years, representing the second-largest amount of long-term Bitcoin movement on record.
• Combined, 2024 and 2025 saw $104 billion in long-dormant bitcoin spent, representing 78% of all BTC older than five years, as long-term holders take profits with Bitcoin fluctuating around the $100,000 mark.

🦊 Galaxy Digital Reduces Bitcoin Price Target to $120,000

• Galaxy has lowered its end-of-year price target for Bitcoin from $185,000 to $120,000, describing this period as Bitcoin's "maturity era" characterized by lower volatility and reduced price gains.
• The adjustment reflects several factors including lack of investor confidence due to market dynamics, rising competition from AI-related stocks, and declining retail interest, while Bitcoin treasury companies may need to adjust their strategies as price movements become less correlated with company valuations.

📈 S&P Digital Markets 50 Index to Have Blockchain Verifiability via Chainlink

• Dinari and Chainlink are launching the S&P Digital Markets 50 Index with an on-chain counterpart, featuring 35 blockchain-related companies and 15 major digital assets, with support from S&P Dow Jones Indices.
• After creation, Dinari will tokenize the index using its platform, ensuring a 1:1 ratio for each asset with shares held by a regulated custodian, enhancing trust and transparency in financial systems through reliable blockchain data.

Market Metrics

Fundraising & VC
1. Fomo (Series A, $17M) - Onchain trading platform
2. zkPass (Public Token Sale, $2M) - Composable, privacy-preserving decentralized identity verification solution for Web3
3. BitDealer (Public Token Sale, $1M) - Gaming-asset meme token launchpad

Regulatory
💰 Central Bank of Ireland Fines Coinbase $24.6M for AML Failures

• Coinbase Europe has been fined €21.4 million ($24.6 million) for breaches in anti-money laundering monitoring, with over 30 million transactions (totaling €176 billion) inadequately monitored in a 12-month period.
• The violations led to delayed filing of 2,708 Suspicious Transaction Reports, highlighting critical failures in the exchange's compliance systems during a period representing about 31% of Coinbase Europe's total transactions.

⚖️ Samourai Wallet Developer Sentenced to 5 Years in Prison

• Keonne Rodriguez, a developer of the Samourai Wallet, has been sentenced to five years in prison for creating a bitcoin mixing service implicated in laundering $237 million from criminal activities.
• The court rejected Rodriguez's attorneys' recommendation for a lighter sentence of just over a year, instead aligning with the prosecution's call for the maximum penalty.

🏦 Bank of England: UK Stablecoin Regulations Coming Quickly

• The Bank of England is preparing stablecoin regulations that will impose temporary holding limits of £20,000 ($26,087) for individuals and £10 million ($13 million) for businesses.
• Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden emphasized that the UK's new regulations will be implemented swiftly, parallel to developments in the U.S., with potential exemptions for larger crypto exchanges.

🤖 ASIC Chair Warns Australia Risks Falling Behind in Tokenization

• Australian Securities and Investments Commission Chair Joe Longo cautioned that Australia is falling behind in tokenization adoption, with about half of market participants declining to engage with ASIC's recent tokenization survey.
• Longo emphasized that without proactive engagement from institutions, Australia risks becoming a "land of missed opportunity" as global competitors accelerate adoption of blockchain technology in financial markets.

🏦 Citi and DTCC: Tokenized Collateral Works, But Regulation Lags

• Executives from Citi, DTCC, and Taurus reported that tokenized collateral is effectively facilitating cross-asset transactions, but regulatory gaps are the primary hurdle to widespread adoption.
• Despite technology readiness with billions in client transactions already flowing through Citi's tokenized cash system, varying regulatory approval across jurisdictions is preventing broader scaling.

Technical Analysis
Bitcoin - An approximate horizontal trend channel in the short term is broken down. A continued weak development is indicated, and the currency now meets resistance on possible reactions up towards the trend lines. There is no support in the price chart and further decline is indicated. In case of a positive reaction, the currency has resistance at 107000 points. Negative volume balance indicates that volume is high on days with falling prices and low on days with rising prices, which weakens the currency. The currency is overall assessed as technically negative for the short term.

Ethereum - Ethereum has broken the falling trend channel down in the short term. This signals an even stronger falling rate. It also gave a negative signal from the rectangle formation at the break down through the support at 3777. Further fall to 3189 or lower is signaled. There is no support in the price chart and further decline is indicated. In case of a positive reaction, the currency has resistance at 3830 points. Volume has previously been low at price tops and high at price bottoms. Volume balance is also negative, which confirms the trend. The currency is overall assessed as technically negative for the short term.