gm 18/11

Summary
gm, Bitcoin dropped below $90,000 for the first time since February, erasing all its 2025 gains and forming a "death cross" technical pattern that signals potential further bearish momentum. Despite this market-wide correction, institutional players continue to demonstrate confidence, as evidenced by Michael Saylor's Strategy acquiring 8,178 BTC for $835.6 million and BitMine adding 54,000 ETH to its holdings. Meanwhile, institutional infrastructure for crypto continues to develop, with Singapore Exchange preparing to launch Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetual futures, Cboe announcing "perpetual-style" crypto futures for December 15, and multiple financial service providers including Figment, OpenTrade, and Crypto.com introducing a new 15% stablecoin yield product targeted at institutional investors.

News Headlines
⚠️ Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Underwater at Highest Level Since FTX Collapse

• Approximately 2.8 million BTC held by short-term holders (those who have held for less than 155 days) are currently at a loss, marking the largest underwater position since the FTX collapse in late 2022. This indicates nearly all recent Bitcoin purchases are now unprofitable as prices dropped from $104,000 in June.
• While short-term holders suffer, U.S. spot ETFs have remained relatively stable, showing only a minor decrease in assets under management. The price slump appears primarily driven by long-term holders distributing their holdings, with their supply decreasing from 14.7 million BTC in July to about 14.3 million BTC in mid-November.

🌊 XRP Outperforms Major Cryptocurrencies with 89% Gain Over 365 Days

• XRP has shown remarkable resilience with an 89% increase over the past year, contrasting sharply with Bitcoin's 3.6% gain and Ethereum's 2% gain during the same period. Despite being 36% below its peak of $3.6 four months ago, it remains the only major asset with positive year-to-date returns.
• The strong performance can be attributed to favorable regulatory developments, especially the SEC lawsuit resolution against Ripple, along with Ripple's expansion into DeFi applications and its successful ETF launch in the U.S. Despite high volatility (91% annualized rate), growing institutional engagement may help stabilize XRP's price.

💰 Figure Technologies Stock Jumps 15% After Druckenmiller's $77M Investment

• Shares of Figure Technologies (FIGR) surged up to 15% following billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller's announcement of a $77 million stake in the company. The stock has increased 44% since its September IPO despite a broader slump in crypto firms.
• Analysts have raised their price targets for Figure, citing its transition to a 'capital-light' lending model focused on home equity lines of credit and its new yield-bearing stablecoin YLDS on the Provenance blockchain. The investment signals growing institutional interest in platforms combining blockchain technology and AI for consumer lending.

🚨 Mt. Gox Moves $956M Worth of BTC to New Addresses Amid Market Downturn

• Mt. Gox has transferred approximately 10,608 BTC (valued around $950 million) to new wallet addresses during Bitcoin's significant price decline. Over 10,422 BTC were sent to an unidentified address while 185.5 BTC returned to Mt. Gox's hot wallet.
• The exchange still holds about 34,689 BTC worth nearly $3.1 billion across various wallets. This transfer raises speculation about potential creditor repayments and possible market sell-offs, adding to concerns as Bitcoin prices hit seven-month lows.

📉 BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF Records $463M Single-Day Outflow in Worst Week Since February

• BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) experienced its largest one-day withdrawal on record, with $463 million flowing out on November 14. This was part of a broader $2 billion decline in digital asset investment products last week, reflecting intensified market uncertainty.
• U.S. funds accounted for 97% of total outflows, while Germany saw modest inflows as some investors took advantage of price weakness. The three-week cumulative outflow has now reached $3.2 billion amid unfavorable macroeconomic signals and cryptocurrency market volatility.

Market Metrics

Fundraising & VC
1. Vooi (Public Token Sale, $1.25M) - Decentralized trading platform
2. Space (Public Token Sale, Undisclosed) - Leveraged prediction market platform on Solana

Regulatory
💸 ICIJ Exposes "Coin Laundry" Crypto Crime Networks

• The International Consortium of Investigative Journalists revealed how cryptocurrency is exploited for criminal activities with illicit funds flowing through major exchanges like Binance, OKX, and Coinbase.
• The investigation involving 100+ journalists across 35 countries highlights regulatory challenges in tracking transactions that exploit the increasing anonymity and speed of cryptocurrency transfers.

🔍 Global Probe Finds Illicit Crypto Moving in Patterns Across Exchanges

• The ICIJ's "Coin Laundry" investigation uncovered over $600 million in suspicious transfers flowing into Binance and OKX accounts, revealing consistent laundering patterns.
• Findings highlight the gap between blockchain records and investigative capacity, showing how various criminal actors exploit the same compliance weaknesses even without central coordination.

🌍 Africa Adopts Stablecoins to Streamline Cross-Border Trade

• The African Continental Free Trade Area Secretariat is partnering with the IOTA Foundation to implement stablecoins for modernizing cross-border trade across Africa.
• The initiative aims to reduce documentation costs by over 50%, potentially unlocking $70 billion in economic value by integrating all 55 member states by 2035.

💰 UK Hacker Ordered to Pay Back $5 Million for Bitcoin Scam

• Joseph James O'Connor, convicted for hijacking high-profile Twitter accounts including Elon Musk and Barack Obama, has been ordered to repay over $5 million.
• The original scam netted approximately 42 BTC and 235 ETH worth $794,000 at the time, but due to cryptocurrency appreciation, his repayment obligation has increased significantly.

🧢 CZ Addresses "Delicate Question" of $4.3B Fine After Trump Pardon

• Binance founder Changpeng "CZ" Zhao discussed the possibility of seeking a refund for the $4.3 billion fine paid during the 2023 settlement with U.S. authorities.
• Following his presidential pardon from Donald Trump, Zhao indicated any potential refunded amount would be reinvested in the U.S., though he suggested no formal refund request has yet been made.

Technical Analysis
Bitcoin - An approximate horizontal trend channel in the short term is broken down. A continued weak development is indicated, and the currency now meets resistance on possible reactions up towards the trend lines. There is no support in the price chart and further decline is indicated. In case of a positive reaction, the currency has resistance at 107000 points. Volume tops and volume bottoms correspond badly with tops and bottoms in the price. Volume balance is also negative, which strengthens the trend break. RSI is below 30 after the falling prices of the past weeks. The currency has strong negative momentum and further decline is indicated. However, particularly in big stocks, low RSI may be a sign that the stock is oversold and that there is a chance for a reaction upwards. The currency is overall assessed as technically negative for the short term.

Ethereum - Ethereum has broken the falling trend channel down in the short term. This signals an even stronger falling rate, but the negative development may result in corrections up in the short term. The price has had a strong fall after the negative signal from the rectangle formation at the break down through the support at 3777. The objective at 3182 is now met, but the formation signals further development in the same direction. There is no support in the price chart and further decline is indicated. In case of a positive reaction, the currency has resistance at 3820 points. Volume has previously been low at price tops and high at price bottoms. Volume balance is also negative, which confirms the trend. The currency is overall assessed as technically negative for the short term.