gm 19/11

Summary
gm, Bitcoin briefly dropped below $90,000, erasing all its 2025 gains amid record outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, including a staggering $1.26 billion from BlackRock's IBIT. Despite the bearish sentiment, highlighted by a "death cross" formation and Fear & Greed Index at extreme fear levels, institutional activity continued with MicroStrategy's $835.6 million BTC purchase and El Salvador adding 1,090 BTC to its reserves. In positive developments, Cboe announced the launch of "perpetual-style" Bitcoin and Ethereum continuous futures for December 15, Mastercard partnered with Polygon to enable verified usernames for crypto transfers, and Kraken secured an $800 million funding round valuing the exchange at $20 billion, signaling continued institutional confidence despite market turbulence.

News Headlines
🔄 Bitcoin Futures Turn to Backwardation—A Bottoming Signal?

• BTC futures slipped below spot prices (backwardation), a rare stress condition that historically coincided with or preceded market bottoms.
• The three-month annualized basis fell to 4%, indicating reduced appetite for leveraged longs. If history rhymes, forced de-risking may be nearing exhaustion before a relief rally.

🌐 Revolut Taps Polygon for Stablecoin Remittances Across UK/EEA

• Revolut users can send USDC/USDT and POL on Polygon, building on $690M in volumes since integration and leveraging a MiCA license in Cyprus.
• A major fintech deploying low-cost on-chain remittances could catalyze broader consumer crypto payments adoption in Europe.

🏦 OCC allows banks to hold crypto for gas fees

• The OCC said national banks may hold and spend digital assets to pay blockchain network fees tied to permissible activities and for testing crypto platforms.
• Aligned with the new GENIUS Act, the guidance lowers operational friction for banks settling on-chain while keeping supervisory expectations in place.

🛠️ Cloudflare Outage Knocks Crypto Front-Ends, Fuels DePIN Push

• A widespread Cloudflare incident caused 500 errors across crypto apps/exchanges, exposing reliance on centralized web infra.
• The disruption reinvigorates DePIN narratives—decentralized, incentive-driven compute and networking—to improve resilience of critical crypto services.

🔗 SocGen’s SG-FORGE Issues First Tokenized Bond in the U.S.

• A SOFR-linked short-term bond was issued on the Canton Network, bought by DRW, with BNY Mellon as paying agent, bringing on-chain debt to U.S. investors under TradFi rails.
• This sets precedent for structured notes and rapid settlement with privacy features, accelerating institutional-grade tokenization.

Market Metrics

Fundraising & VC
1. Obex (Undisclosed, $37M) - Next-generation crypto incubator launched by Sky
2. WizzWoods (Series A, $10M) - Pixel farming game that integrates interchain capabilities with a SocialFi twist
3. BOB (Public Token Sale, $4.2M) - Unified gateway for BTCFi

Regulatory
🧾 White House reviews IRS rules on Americans’ foreign crypto accounts

• Treasury’s proposal would let the IRS access data on U.S. taxpayers’ overseas crypto as the U.S. considers joining the OECD’s Crypto‑Asset Reporting Framework (CARF).
• CARF enables automatic cross-border exchange of crypto holdings to combat tax evasion, signaling tighter reporting obligations for exchanges and higher compliance burdens for U.S. taxpayers.

🍁 Canada advances national stablecoin policy under Bank of Canada

• The federal budget advances a stablecoin regime requiring 1:1 high‑quality liquid reserves, instant redemption, risk controls, and no yield from non‑bank issuers.
• The framework could catalyze CAD‑denominated stablecoins and align Canada more closely with U.S./EU rules, strengthening consumer protections.

🏛️ Deutsche Börse to integrate MiCA stablecoins into core systems

• Deutsche Börse and SocGen‑FORGE will test euro and dollar CoinVertible stablecoins for post‑trade settlement, collateral, and liquidity use cases.
• The integration advances tokenized cash settlement in a MiCA‑compliant environment and dovetails with ongoing wholesale CBDC experiments.

🔗 Ondo wins EU approval to offer tokenized stocks, ETFs

• Liechtenstein’s FMA granted authorization allowing Ondo to passport tokenized U.S. stocks/ETFs across the EEA under a unified framework.
• The move, alongside Swiss market collaborations, signals growing European acceptance of on‑chain securities with investor protections.

📜 Senate targets December vote on crypto market structure bill

• Chair Tim Scott aims to move a bill defining SEC/CFTC roles, with GOP backing and continued talks with Democrats.
• Passage would trigger reconciliation with the House version, potentially delivering long‑sought clarity for exchanges, token listings, and investor protections.

Technical Analysis
Bitcoin - Bitcoin is in a falling trend channel in the short term. Falling trends indicate that the currency experiences negative development and falling buy interest among investors. There is no support in the price chart and further decline is indicated. In case of a positive reaction, the currency has resistance at 107000 points. Volume tops and volume bottoms correspond badly with tops and bottoms in the price. Volume balance is also negative, which confirms the trend. The short term momentum of the currency is strongly negative, with RSI below 30. This indicates increasing pessimism among investors and further decline for Bitcoin. However, particularly in big stocks, low RSI may be a sign that the stock is oversold and that there is a chance for a reaction upwards. The currency is overall assessed as technically negative for the short term.

Ethereum - Ethereum has broken the falling trend channel down in the short term. This signals an even stronger falling rate, but the negative development may result in corrections up in the short term. The price has had a strong fall after the negative signal from the rectangle formation at the break down through the support at 3777. The objective at 3182 is now met, but the formation signals further development in the same direction. There is no support in the price chart and further decline is indicated. In case of a positive reaction, the currency has resistance at 3820 points. Volume has previously been low at price tops and high at price bottoms. Volume balance is also negative, which confirms the trend. The currency is overall assessed as technically negative for the short term.