gm 30/09

Summary
gm, SWIFT announced a partnership with Consensys and 30 major financial institutions to develop a blockchain-based settlement system for enhancing cross-border payments. The stablecoin market approached a $300 billion market cap, with Mastercard expanding integration of multiple stablecoins, signaling growing mainstream financial adoption. Bitcoin recovered above $112,000 following a period of volatility and significant short liquidations totaling $260 million, while investors await October's ETF decisions with the SEC set to rule on potentially 16 cryptocurrency ETFs including Litecoin, Solana, and XRP funds. Additionally, Kazakhstan launched a state-backed crypto fund with an initial investment in BNB, marking another step in sovereign adoption of digital assets.

News Headlines
🔗 Chainlink Poised to Power TradFi Shift to Blockchain, Jefferies Says

• Jefferies identifies Chainlink as crucial infrastructure for integrating traditional finance with blockchain technology, with the oracle network securing $103 billion in assets across 2,500+ projects including partnerships with Swift, DTCC, and JPMorgan.
• Analysts believe Chainlink's first-mover advantage and network effects will help it maintain dominance over competitors like LayerZero and Pyth as institutions increasingly adopt blockchain solutions to reduce costs and improve liquidity.

📉 Expect Major BTC Corrections Before New All-Time Highs: Analyst

• Analyst Jordi Visser predicts Bitcoin will experience significant corrections of 20% or more before reaching new all-time highs, similar to Nvidia's pattern which saw five corrections exceeding 20% during its 1,000%+ surge since ChatGPT's launch.
• With Bitcoin trading around $110,000, analysts remain divided on whether it will reach new heights potentially hitting $140,000 or if its recent downturn indicates a prolonged bear market amid regulatory challenges.

🛡️ Pavel Durov Declines To Censor Moldova Election Content on Telegram

• Pavel Durov revealed that French intelligence pressured Telegram to censor political content related to Moldova's 2024 elections during his recent arrest, a request he ultimately refused on principle.
• Following his arrest, which sparked outrage in crypto and human rights communities, Durov has become increasingly critical of the French government, warning against state-led censorship and surveillance measures that compromise user data and privacy.

🌊 Bitcoin ETFs End Four-Week Streak on Quarter-End Rebalancing

• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced their first weekly outflow in over a month, with $902.5 million withdrawn last week, including $418.25 million on Friday alone, ending a four-week inflow streak.
• Analysts attribute these withdrawals to profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing as the quarter ends, with long-term institutional adoption remaining strong despite the short-term outflows.

🖥️ Firedancer Devs Want to Remove Solana's Block Limit to Speed Up Network

• Jump Crypto has proposed eliminating Solana's fixed compute block limit of 60 million units to enhance network performance, potentially allowing the network to adapt based on the transaction capacity of individual validators.
• The proposal, intended for implementation after the Alpenglow upgrade, aims to create a cycle where slower validators skip complex blocks (processed by better-equipped validators), encouraging hardware improvements while risking potential centralization.

Market Metrics

Fundraising & VC
1. Hela Labs (Undisclosed, $2M) - Intent-centric modular blockchain ecosystem
2. UpTop (M&A, Undisclosed) - Decentralized liquidity protocol built on BNB Chain

Regulatory
📝 SEC Issues No-Action Letter for DePIN Tokens

• The SEC confirmed it won't pursue enforcement against tokens linked to Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks, stating they fall outside its jurisdiction.
• Commissioner Hester Peirce emphasized that DePIN tokens serve as functional incentives rather than investment vehicles, marking a significant clarification for the growing sector.

🔍 NYDFS Chief Adrienne Harris Resigns After Four-Year Tenure

• Harris, who played a crucial role in shaping New York's crypto regulatory framework and BitLicense enforcement, will step down effective October 17, 2025.
• Deputy Superintendent Kaitlin Asrow will take over as acting head, continuing oversight of key financial institutions including Wall Street banks and crypto firms like Coinbase and Paxos.

🚨 Turkey to Expand AML Powers Over Crypto Accounts

• New legislation would allow Turkey's financial crime watchdog, Masak, to freeze cryptocurrency accounts suspected of illicit activities.
• The proposal aims to strengthen anti-money laundering capabilities and address the use of "rented accounts" for illegal operations like gambling and fraud.

🌐 Poland Advances Strict Crypto Regulation Bill

• Poland's parliament passed one of the EU's most restrictive crypto regulatory frameworks, requiring all service providers to obtain licenses from the financial regulator KNF.
• Critics warn the bill could stifle innovation with potential fines reaching $2.8 million and prison sentences, while facing additional hurdles from slow application processing times averaging 30 months.

📊 Massachusetts to Hold Hearing on Bitcoin Reserve Bill

• The state will consider legislation allowing seized Bitcoin to be deposited into a strategic reserve and permitting the treasury to invest up to 10% of stabilization funds in cryptocurrency.
• The bill faces challenges in the Democrat-controlled legislature, as only a few states like New Hampshire and Texas currently allow for such crypto reserves.

Technical Analysis
Bitcoin - Bitcoin shows weak development in a falling trend channel in the short term. Falling trends indicate that the currency experiences negative development and falling buy interest among investors. The currency is between support at points 113600 and resistance at points 115600. A definitive break through of one of these levels predicts the new direction. The currency is assessed as technically neutral for the short term.

Ethereum - Ethereum is within an approximate horizontal trend channel in the short term, which indicates further development in the same direction. The currency gave a negative signal from the double top formation by the break down through the support at 4298. Further fall to 3878 or lower is signaled. The currency is between support at points 4000 and resistance at points 4300. A definitive break through of one of these levels predicts the new direction. The RSI curve shows a falling trend, which is an early signal of a possible trend reversal downwards for the price as well. The currency is overall assessed as technically negative for the short term.